Amphiregulin, ST2,and REG3α Biomarker Risk Algorithms as Predictors of Non-Relapse Mortality in Patients with Acute GVHD.

Graft-vs-host disease (GVHD) is a major cause of non-relapse mortality (NRM) following allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplant (HCT). Algorithms containing either the GI GVHD biomarker amphiregulin (AREG) or a combination of two GI GVHD biomarkers, (ST2+REG3α) when measured at GVHD diagnosis are validated predictors of NRM risk, but have never been assessed in the same patients using identical statistical methods. We measured serum concentrations of ST2, REG3, and AREG by ELISA at the time of GVHD diagnosis in 715 patients divided by date of transplant into training (2004-2015) and validation (2015-2017) cohorts. The training cohort (n=341) was used to develop algorithms for predicting probability of 12 month NRM that contained all possible combinations of 1-3 biomarkers and a threshold corresponding to the concordance probability was used to stratify patients for risk of NRM. Algorithms were compared to each other based on several metrics including the area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC), proportion of patients correctly classified, sensitivity, and specificity using only the validation cohort (n=374). All algorithms were strong discriminators of 12 month NRM, whether or not patients were systemically treated (n=321). An algorithm containing only ST2+REG3α had the highest AUC (0.757), correctly classified the most patients (75%), and more accurately risk stratified those who developed Minnesota standard risk GVHD and for patients who received post-transplant cyclophosphamide-based prophylaxis. An algorithm containing only AREG more accurately risk stratified patients with Minnesota high risk GVHD. Combining ST2, REG3α, and AREG into a single algorithm did not improve performance.

A Validated Risk Stratification That Incorporates MAGIC Biomarkers Predicts Long-Term Outcomes in Pediatric Patients with Acute GVHD.

Acute graft versus host disease (GVHD) is a common and serious complication of allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT) in children but overall clinical grade at onset only modestly predicts response to treatment and survival outcomes. Two tools to assess risk at initiation of treatment were recently developed. The Minnesota risk system stratifies children for risk of nonrelapse mortality (NRM) according to the pattern of GVHD target organ severity. The Mount Sinai Acute GVHD International Consortium (MAGIC) algorithm of 2 serum biomarkers (ST2 and REG3α) predicts NRM in adult patients but has not been validated in a pediatric population. We aimed to develop and validate a system that stratifies children at the onset of GVHD for risk of 6-month NRM. We determined the MAGIC algorithm probabilities (MAPs) and Minnesota risk for a multicenter cohort of 315 pediatric patients who developed GVHD requiring treatment with systemic corticosteroids. MAPs created 3 risk groups with distinct outcomes at the start of treatment and were more accurate than Minnesota risk stratification for prediction of NRM (area under the receiver operating curve (AUC), .79 versus .62, P = .001). A novel model that combined Minnesota risk and biomarker scores created from a training cohort was more accurate than either biomarkers or clinical systems in a validation cohort (AUC .87) and stratified patients into 2 groups with highly different 6-month NRM (5% versus 38%, P < .001). In summary, we validated the MAP as a prognostic biomarker in pediatric patients with GVHD, and a novel risk stratification that combines Minnesota risk and biomarker risk performed best. Biomarker-based risk stratification can be used in clinical trials to develop more tailored approaches for children who require treatment for GVHD.

A Day 14 Endpoint for Acute GVHD Clinical Trials.

The overall response rate (ORR) 28 days after treatment has been adopted as the primary endpoint for clinical trials of acute graft versus host disease (GVHD). However, physicians often need to modify immunosuppression earlier than day (D) 28, and non-relapse mortality (NRM) does not always correlate with ORR at D28. We studied 1144 patients that received systemic treatment for GVHD in the Mount Sinai Acute GVHD International Consortium (MAGIC) and divided them into a training set (n=764) and a validation set (n=380). We used a recursive partitioning algorithm to create a Mount Sinai model that classifies patients into favorable or unfavorable groups that predicted 12 month NRM according to overall GVHD grade at both onset and D14. In the Mount Sinai model grade II GVHD at D14 was unfavorable for grade III/IV GVHD at onset and predicted NRM as well as the D28 standard response model. The MAGIC algorithm probability (MAP) is a validated score that combines the serum concentrations of suppression of tumorigenicity 2 (ST2) and regenerating islet-derived 3-alpha (REG3α) to predict NRM. Inclusion of the D14 MAP biomarker score with the D14 Mount Sinai model created three distinct groups (good, intermediate, poor) with strikingly different NRM (8%, 35%, 76% respectively). This D14 MAGIC model displayed better AUC, sensitivity, positive and negative predictive value, and net benefit in decision curve analysis compared to the D28 standard response model. We conclude that this D14 MAGIC model could be useful in therapeutic decisions and may offer an improved endpoint for clinical trials of acute GVHD treatment.

Flares of acute graft-versus-host disease: a Mount Sinai Acute GVHD International Consortium analysis.

ABSTRACT: The absence of a standardized definition for graft-versus-host disease (GVHD) flares and data on its clinical course are significant concerns. We retrospectively evaluated 968 patients across 23 Mount Sinai Acute GVHD International Consortium (MAGIC) transplant centers who achieved complete response (CR) or very good partial response (VGPR) within 4 weeks of treatment. The cumulative incidence of flares within 6 months was 22%, and flares were associated with a higher risk of nonrelapse mortality (NRM; adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 4.84; 95% confidence interval [CI], 3.19-7.36; P < .001). Flares were more severe (grades 3/4, 41% vs 16%; P < .001) and had more frequent lower gastrointestinal (LGI) involvement (55% vs 32%; P < .001) than the initial GVHD. At CR/VGPR, elevated MAGIC biomarkers predicted the future occurrence of a flare, along with its severity and LGI involvement. In multivariate analyses, higher Ann Arbor (AA) biomarker scores at CR/VGPR were significant risk factors for flares (AA2 vs AA1: aHR, 1.81 [95% CI, 1.32-2.48; P = .001]; AA3 vs AA1: aHR, 3.14 [95% CI, 1.98-4.98; P < .001]), as were early response to initial treatment (aHR, 1.84; 95% CI, 1.21-2.80; P = .004) and HLA-mismatched unrelated donor (aHR, 1.74; 95% CI, 1.00-3.02; P = .049). MAGIC biomarkers also stratified the risk of NRM both at CR/VGPR and at the time of flare. We conclude that GVHD flares are common and carry a significant mortality risk. The occurrence of future flares can be predicted by serum biomarkers that may serve to guide adjustment and discontinuation of immunosuppression.

Incidence, clinical presentation, risk factors, outcomes, and biomarkers in de novo late acute GVHD.

Late acute graft-versus-host disease (GVHD) is defined as de novo acute GVHD presenting beyond 100 days after allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT) without manifestations of chronic GVHD. Data are limited regarding its characteristics, clinical course, and risk factors because of underrecognition and changes in classification. We evaluated 3542 consecutive adult recipients of first HCTs at 24 Mount Sinai Acute GVHD International Consortium (MAGIC) centers between January 2014 and August 2021 to better describe the clinical evolution and outcomes of late acute GVHD. The cumulative incidence of classic acute GVHD that required systemic treatment was 35.2%, and an additional 5.7% of patients required treatment for late acute GVHD. At the onset of symptoms, late acute GVHD was more severe than classic acute GVHD based on both clinical and MAGIC algorithm probability biomarker parameters and showed a lower overall response rate on day 28. Both clinical and biomarker grading at the time of treatment stratified the risk of nonrelapse mortality (NRM) in patients with classic and late acute GVHD, respectively, but long-term NRM and overall survival did not differ between patients with classic and late acute GVHD. Advanced age, female-to-male sex mismatch, and the use of reduced intensity conditioning were associated with the development of late acute GVHD, whereas the use of posttransplant cyclophosphamide-based GVHD prevention was protective mainly because of shifts in GVHD timing. Because overall outcomes were comparable, our findings, although not definitive, suggest that similar treatment strategies, including eligibility for clinical trials, based solely on clinical presentation at onset are appropriate.

Phase 2 study of natalizumab plus standard corticosteroid treatment for high-risk acute graft-versus-host disease.

Graft-versus-host disease (GVHD) of the gastrointestinal (GI) tract is the main cause of nonrelapse mortality (NRM) after allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation. Ann Arbor (AA) scores derived from serum biomarkers at onset of GVHD quantify GI crypt damage; AA2/3 scores correlate with resistance to treatment and higher NRM. We conducted a multicenter, phase 2 study using natalizumab, a humanized monoclonal antibody that blocks T-cell trafficking to the GI tract through the α4 subunit of α4ß7 integrin, combined with corticosteroids as primary treatment for patients with new onset AA2/3 GVHD. Seventy-five patients who were evaluable were enrolled and treated; 81% received natalizumab within 2 days of starting corticosteroids. Therapy was well tolerated with no treatment emergent adverse events in >10% of patients. Outcomes for patients treated with natalizumab plus corticosteroids were compared with 150 well-matched controls from the MAGIC database whose primary treatment was corticosteroids alone. There were no significant differences in overall or complete response between patients treated with natalizumab plus corticosteroids and those treated with corticosteroids alone (60% vs 58%; P = .67% and 48% vs 48%; P = 1.0, respectively) including relevant subgroups. There were also no significant differences in NRM or overall survival at 12 months in patients treated with natalizumab plus corticosteroids compared with controls treated with corticosteroids alone (38% vs 39%; P = .80% and 46% vs 54%; P = .48, respectively). In this multicenter biomarker-based phase 2 study, natalizumab combined with corticosteroids failed to improve outcome of patients with newly diagnosed high-risk GVHD. This trial was registered at www.clinicaltrials.gov as # NCT02133924.

Effective treatment of low-risk acute GVHD with itacitinib monotherapy.

The standard primary treatment for acute graft-versus-host disease (GVHD) requires prolonged, high-dose systemic corticosteroids (SCSs) that delay reconstitution of the immune system. We used validated clinical and biomarker staging criteria to identify a group of patients with low-risk (LR) GVHD that is very likely to respond to SCS. We hypothesized that itacitinib, a selective JAK1 inhibitor, would effectively treat LR GVHD without SCS. We treated 70 patients with LR GVHD in a multicenter, phase 2 trial (NCT03846479) with 28 days of itacitinib 200 mg/d (responders could receive a second 28-day cycle), and we compared their outcomes to those of 140 contemporaneous, matched control patients treated with SCSs. More patients responded to itacitinib within 7 days (81% vs 66%, P = .02), and response rates at day 28 were very high for both groups (89% vs 86%, P = .67), with few symptomatic flares (11% vs 12%, P = .88). Fewer itacitinib-treated patients developed a serious infection within 90 days (27% vs 42%, P = .04) due to fewer viral and fungal infections. Grade ≥3 cytopenias were similar between groups except for less severe leukopenia with itacitinib (16% vs 31%, P = .02). No other grade ≥3 adverse events occurred in >10% of itacitinib-treated patients. There were no significant differences between groups at 1 year for nonrelapse mortality (4% vs 11%, P = .21), relapse (18% vs 21%, P = .64), chronic GVHD (28% vs 33%, P = .33), or survival (88% vs 80%, P = .11). Itacitinib monotherapy seems to be a safe and effective alternative to SCS treatment for LR GVHD and deserves further investigation.

Assessment of systemic and gastrointestinal tissue damage biomarkers for GVHD risk stratification.

We used a rigorous PRoBE (prospective-specimen collection, retrospective-blinded-evaluation) study design to compare the ability of biomarkers of systemic inflammation and biomarkers of gastrointestinal (GI) tissue damage to predict response to corticosteroid treatment, the incidence of clinically severe disease, 6-month nonrelapse mortality (NRM), and overall survival in patients with acute graft-versus-host disease (GVHD). We prospectively collected serum samples of newly diagnosed GVHD patients (n = 730) from 19 centers, divided them into training (n = 352) and validation (n = 378) cohorts, and measured TNFR1, TIM3, IL6, ST2, and REG3α via enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Performances of the 4 strongest algorithms from the training cohort (TNFR1 + TIM3, TNFR1 + ST2, TNFR1 + REG3α, and ST2 + REG3α) were evaluated in the validation cohort. The algorithm that included only biomarkers of systemic inflammation (TNFR1 + TIM3) had a significantly smaller area under the curve (AUC; 0.57) than the AUCs of algorithms that contained ≥1 GI damage biomarker (TNFR1 + ST2, 0.70; TNFR1 + REG3α, 0.73; ST2 + REG3α, 0.79; all P < .001). All 4 algorithms were able to predict short-term outcomes such as response to systemic corticosteroids and severe GVHD, but the inclusion of a GI damage biomarker was needed to predict long-term outcomes such as 6-month NRM and survival. The algorithm that included 2 GI damage biomarkers was the most accurate of the 4 algorithms for all endpoints.

Evaluation of Elafin as a Prognostic Biomarker in Acute Graft-versus-Host Disease.

Acute graft-versus-host disease (GVHD) is a major cause of mortality in patients undergoing hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT) for hematologic malignancies. The skin is the most commonly involved organ in GVHD. Elafin, a protease inhibitor overexpressed in inflamed epidermis, was previously identified as a diagnostic biomarker of skin GVHD; however, this finding was restricted to a subset of patients with isolated skin GVHD. The main driver of nonrelapse mortality (NRM) in HCT recipients is gastrointestinal (GI) GVHD. Two biomarkers, Regenerating islet-derived 3a (REG3α) and Suppressor of tumorigenesis 2 (ST2), have been validated as biomarkers of GI GVHD that predict long-term outcomes in patients treated for GVHD. We undertook this study to determine the utility of elafin as a prognostic biomarker in the general population of acute GVHD patients in whom GVHD may develop in multiple organs. We analyzed serum elafin concentrations as a predictive biomarker of acute GVHD outcomes and compared it with ST2 and REG3α in a large group of patients treated at multiple centers. A total of 526 patients from the Mount Sinai Acute GVHD International Consortium (MAGIC) who had received corticosteroid treatment for skin GVHD and who had not been previously studied were analyzed. Serum concentrations of elafin, ST2, and REG3α were measured by ELISA in all patients. The patients were divided at random into equal training and validation sets, and a competing-risk regression model was developed to model 6-month NRM using elafin concentration in the training set. Additional models were developed using concentrations of ST2 and REG3α or the combination of all 3 biomarkers as predictors. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were constructed using the validation set to evaluate the predictive accuracy of each model and to stratify patients into high- and low-risk biomarker groups. The cumulative incidence of 6-month NRM, overall survival (OS), and 4-week treatment response were compared between the risk groups. Unexpectedly, patients in the low-risk elafin group demonstrated a higher incidence of 6-month NRM, although the difference was not statistically significant (17% versus 11%; P = .19). OS at 6 months (68% versus 68%; P > .99) and 4-week response (78% versus 78%; P = .98) were similar in the low-risk and high-risk elafin groups. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) was 0.55 for elafin and 0.75 for the combination of ST2 and REG3α. The addition of elafin to the other 2 biomarkers did not improve the AUC. Our data indicate that serum elafin concentrations measured at the initiation of systemic treatment for acute GVHD did not predict 6-month NRM, OS, or treatment response in a multicenter population of patients treated systemically for acute GVHD. As seen in previous studies, serum concentrations of the GI GVHD biomarkers ST2 and REG3α were significant predictors of NRM, and the addition of elafin levels did not improve their accuracy. These results underscore the importance of GI disease in driving NRM in patients who develop acute GVHD.

Biomarker-guided preemption of steroid-refractory graft-versus-host disease with α-1-antitrypsin.

Steroid-refractory (SR) acute graft-versus-host disease (GVHD) remains a major cause of nonrelapse mortality (NRM) after allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT), but its occurrence is not accurately predicted by pre-HCT clinical risk factors. The Mount Sinai Acute GVHD International Consortium (MAGIC) algorithm probability (MAP) identifies patients who are at high risk for developing SR GVHD as early as 7 days after HCT based on the extent of intestinal crypt damage as measured by the concentrations of 2 serum biomarkers, suppressor of tumorigenesis 2 and regenerating islet-derived 3α. We conducted a multicenter proof-of-concept "preemptive" treatment trial of α-1-antitrypsin (AAT), a serine protease inhibitor with demonstrated activity against GVHD, in patients at high risk for developing SR GVHD. Patients were eligible if they possessed a high-risk MAP on day 7 after HCT or, if initially low risk, became high risk on repeat testing at day 14. Thirty high-risk patients were treated with twice-weekly infusions of AAT for a total of 16 doses, and their outcomes were compared with 90 high-risk near-contemporaneous MAGIC control patients. AAT treatment was well tolerated with few toxicities, but it did not lower the incidence of SR GVHD compared with controls (20% vs 14%, P = .56). We conclude that real-time biomarker-based risk assignment is feasible early after allogeneic HCT but that this dose and schedule of AAT did not change the incidence of SR acute GVHD. This trial was registered at www.clinicaltrials.gov as #NCT03459040.